Immigration and Conflict

In my previous post concerning business lobbying to gut any serious immigration reform, I spoke of the welfare and other costs of immigration to the taxpayer.

A bigger problem (at least from the moderate-liberal perspective) should be the obvious potential for conflict that these changes create.

The excerpt below shows that the political battle-lines have already been drawn for the next 30 years.

We have a minority member of Clinnocio's cabinet, Fernando Torres-Gil, assistant secretary for aging in the Department of Health and Human Services issuing what amounts to a thinly veiled threat - knuckle under and pay for us brown people, or we will take away your Social Security!

"Education 'will be the really important flash point,' predicted Robert Manning, assistant professor of sociology at American University in Washington."

Brazen, isn't it!

The attack by blacks and browns will intensify as European-Americans become a smaller and smaller group. They already know what they want and what to threaten.

The attack will intensify until it becomes intolerable and conflict breaks out.

As long as European-Americans insist on playing "let's pretend" and refuse to admit that these people hate us, we will continue to lose the battle that we refuse to recognize.

It is really quite simple:

To find out who has political power, you must ask who is winning and who is losing.

As you can see from the excerpt below, Euro-America is losing. The reason they are losing is that they refuse to recognize the uncomfortable truth about black and brown hatred. They prefer to delay the inevitable costs of self-defense until they can be imposed on someone else's children!

What you can also see is an arrogant hubris on the part of the minority coalition. They think that Euro-Americans will sit by passively and be willing to lose these battles indefinitely.

They ignore the lessons from the rest of the world. Multi-racial empires generate conflict. Races do not remain passive in the face of attack indefinitely.



[Mar. 14, 1996 Los Angeles Times p A4]

POPULATION: Latino, Asian Growth

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Continued from A1

The nation's total population 262.8 million last July 1, will increase to 393.9 million by the year 2050, according to the Census Bureau's forecast. Current growth is modest, less than 1% a year, the lowest rate since the Great Depression of the 1930s. It is projected to slow even more at the turn of the century and, after 2025, is expected to drop to the lowest rates ever.

The basic expansion of the U.S. population will be in the Latino and Asian populations, which already are leading the way in changing the ethnic makeup of California.

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The U.S. population now is 73.6% white, 12% black, 10.2% Latino, 3.3% Asian, and 0.7% Native American. The official forecast issued on Wednesday is that in 2050, the nation will be 52.8% white, 24.5% Latino, 13.6% black, 8.2% Asian and 0.95% Native American.

"I would be willing to bet that is a conservative estimate-the white population could be less than a majority a lot sooner," said Peter Francese, president of American Demographics magazine.

The government forecasts, revised every two years, depend on estimates of future birthrates and immigration trends. The Census Bureau expects immigration of 820,000 a year, including about 225,000 illegal immigrants.

The Latino population is growing at a rate of 900,000 a year, including net immigration of 350,000. The category of Asian and Pacific Islanders is increasing at 380,000 a year, including 235,000 immigrants.

Even without immigration, the Latino population would be growing faster than the white non-Latino population because it is younger and has a higher fertility rate. Latinos will become the nation's largest minority group in 2009, the Census Bureau predicts, surpassing the number of blacks.

New entrants into the U.S. work force will increasingly be members of minority groups. The median age - half the members are older and half younger - is 35.3 for whites, 30.6 for Asians, 29.2 for blacks, and 26.3 for Latinos.

The nation will be heavily dependent on workers from minority groups "for the productivity and labor skills and the political willingness to pay taxes to support an aging population that will be largely white," said Fernando Torres-Gil, assistant secretary for aging in the Department of Health and Human Services. "We have to be willing to invest in these groups, as we invested in people after World War II with education, training and good roads," he said. "Maybe we need a new GI bill for this segment of the population."

But the spending will not be possible, he said, without the approval of the aging white population. "It will be up to senior citizens, with their tremendous political clout, to protect their benefits like Medicare and Social Security and also invest in a new diverse, younger population," he said.

Education "will be the really important flash point," predicted Robert Manning, assistant professor of sociology at American University in Washington.

The retired population, those 65 and over, will grow very slowly for the next 15 years because there was a baby bust in the 1930's the decade of economic depression and very low birthrates. An enormous surge will start in the year 2010, when the first of the hordes of baby-boomers - the 76 million persons born in the years 1946 through 1965 - reach 65.

The "Florida-zation" of the United States will be fully complete by 2030, Torres-Gil said. About 20% of Americans will be over 65 then, compared with 13% now.

The biggest expansion of Latino and Asian populations will take place in states that draw the most immigrants California, Texas, New York, Florida, Illinois and New Jersey. But there is now a spillover with communities growing rapidly in such places as Atlanta, Minneapolis and Washington state, said Jeffrey Passel, director of the Urban Institute's program for research on immigration policy. California's population is currently 52.5% white, 29.8% Latino, 10.7% Asian and 6.9% black according to the Finance Department. The most recent state forecast, issued in 1993, goes to 2040 and estimates a California population that will be 49.7% Latino 32.4% white, 11.8% Asian and 5.9% black.

Los Angeles County is now 43.5% Latino, 35.1% white, 9.9% black and 11.4% Asian, according to state figures. The 2040 forecast expects a population of 69.1% Latino, 13.8% white, 6% black and 10.9% Asian.

Orange County is 61.8% white 26.1% Latino, 1.6% black and 10.5% Asian. Projections are for a 2040 population of 47.4% Latino 40.6% white, 10.4% Asian and 1.5% black.

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